Economic Development, Mobility, and Political Discontent: An Experimental Test of Tocqueville’s Thesis in Pakistan

Healy et al. argued that expanding economic opportunity may paradoxically erode confidence in government when rising expectations outpace improvements in living conditions. The authors formalized Tocqueville’s “aspirations gap” logic and tested it through an experiment in Pakistan. They discovered that, in line with Tocqueville’s theory, confidence in government declined most among high-aspiring individuals who perceived themselves as relatively poor within a context of high social mobility. Thus, the study identified a mechanism through which economic growth can generate discontent rather than promote stability.

For Tideline, the lesson was rather simple: material progress and talk of “opportunity” are not enough. If civic narratives, institutions, and visible pathways don’t help individuals reconcile higher aspirations with fair, achievable progress, then perceived mobility can intensify frustration and erode shared loyalty to the polity. Building a guilt-free pride in being American and civic education that turns mobility into belonging requires converting rising expectations into civic buy-in at a large scale.