No Additional Evidence that Proximity to the July 4th Holiday Affects Affective Polarization

Brandt and Turner-Zwinkels conduct a longitudinal panel to conceptually replicate Levendusky’s “July 4th” natural experiment, testing whether temporal proximity to Independence Day reduces affective polarization. They report no short-term or longer-run effects of July 4th proximity on distance from out-partisans or out-ideologues, and no individual-difference variance. That being said, analyses indicate they could have detected effects comparable to the largest 2008 estimates, suggesting that the nulls are constrained to very small magnitudes in 2019. The authors note measurement differences from 2008 and a more polarized context, while reaffirming that common ingroup identity may still work if primes are context-sensitive and acknowledge subgroup identities.

Simply put, patriotic rituals, such as July 4th, alone are unlikely to move mass sentiment. For Tideline, this signaled that we need to create a foundation for an inclusive civic-national frame paired with structured contact or service.